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All That Glitters, is Not Gold!

  July 28,2022

All That Glitters, is Not Gold!

All that glitters is not gold is a well-known saying, meaning that not everything that looks precious are true, turns out to be so. This can apply to people, places, or things that promise to be more than they really are.

Unfortunately, Indians are fond of GOLD and they always felt that GOLD prices keep moving all the times and whenever it comes down, it is good to buy, because it will go up any time. It clearly shows that people are more emotional than practical!

My only submission here is GOLD is not at all a good investment and when it comes to ornament, it is the individual wish to buy or not. No comments! The reason for telling me is not a good investment, I have given the gold prices data for the last so many years and one can easily find out whether it is really moved or not! You are the best person to judge based on the data given below.


Year Price Year  Price
1964 Rs. 63.25 1992  Rs. 4,334.00
1965 Rs. 71.75 1993  Rs. 4,140.00
1966 Rs. 83.75 1994  Rs. 4,598.00
1967 Rs. 102.50 1995  Rs. 4,680.00
1968 Rs. 162.00 1996  Rs. 5,160.00
1969 Rs. 176.00 1997  Rs. 4,725.00
1970 Rs. 184.00 1998  Rs. 4,045.00
1971 Rs. 193.00 1999  Rs. 4,234.00
1972 Rs. 202.00 2000  Rs. 4,400.00
1973 Rs. 278.50 2001  Rs. 4,300.00
1974 Rs. 506.00 2002  Rs. 4,990.00
1975 Rs. 540.00 2003  Rs. 5,600.00
1976 Rs. 432.00 2004  Rs. 5,850.00
1977 Rs. 486.00 2005  Rs. 7,000.00
1978 Rs. 685.00 2006  Rs. 8,400.00
1979 Rs. 937.00 2007  Rs. 10,800.00
1980 Rs. 1,330.00 2008  Rs. 12,500.00
1981 Rs. 1,800.00 2009  Rs. 14,500.00
1982 Rs. 1,645.00 2010  Rs. 18,500.00
1983 Rs. 1,800.00 2011  Rs. 26,400.00
1984 Rs. 1,970.00 2012  Rs. 31,050.00
1985 Rs. 2,130.00 2013  Rs. 29,600.00
1986 Rs. 2,140.00 2014  Rs. 28,006.50
1987 Rs. 2,570.00 2015  Rs. 26,343.50
1988 Rs. 3,130.00 2016  Rs. 28,623.50
1989 Rs. 3,140.00 2017  Rs. 28,130.00
1990 Rs. 3,200.00 2018  Rs. 29,654.00
1991 Rs. 3,466.00 2019  Rs. 33,310.00
       
  1980 28-07-2019  Multiply by 
Sensex               100           37,882              378.82
Gold 1,330           33,310 25.05
  2012    
Sensex 18,869 37,882 100.76%
Gold 31,050 33,310 7.28%

As far as data goes, it is not encouraging and let’s look at how the future returns will look like. I agree with you all that in our social life GOLD still plays an important role. But the point is do we should accumulate only in terms of gold, or it can be some other investments which should be in a position to buy the GOLD, which we require it in the near future, hope that makes more sense to one and all.

Internationally GOLD is bought against US dollars. Gold is measured by Troy Ounce and it is 31.1 gram, for the calculation purpose we will take 32 grams or 4 sovereign. The question, I leave it to you all is what would be the currency gain going forward. Considering make in India and other initiatives as far as my reading goes it will not breach 75 in the next 5 years and chances or rupee strengthening is higher and you have every right to make your opinion on that. Opinion reserved for you.

It clearly shows in the international market GOLD price will not move for decades. Considering the current situation it is difficult to buy GOLD through cash, so things will never look like what we had in the past.


Gold Price – Historical Movement
Year 1 Troy Ounce 31.1 Grams  
1980  $ 892 Rs. 8 Per $  
2000  $ 272 Rs. 48 Per $  
22-08-2011  $ 1,917 Rs. 45.57 Per $  
26-07-2019  $ 1,433 Rs. 68.9 Per $  
8 Years 25% 51%  

In the last 7 years, it has given 7% returns in absolute term, but how many know this fact, even if I tell you still many will not accept! Take 10 years or any long term it proves not a great investment. On top of it protecting GOLD is not that easy as well.

Let’s look at the other investment avenue like mutual fund which can eventually generates good return though we don’t know much or we don’t like much. Just because there is a statutory warning everyone fears about Mutual Fund.

MF investments are subject to Market Risk, read the offer document carefully before investing!

All the investments are subject to market risk like GOLD, Real estate. Even our bank interests also subject to interest rate risk. Many could not find an opportunity to reinvest what they had invested few years before. But, they never told about the risk, we consider it is a safe investment!

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